The calls that Trump will take first

Analysis: Kamala Harris’ phone call to concede defeat was perhaps her last chance to influence the shape of the American presidency for the next four years.
She accepted she’d lost. She congratulated Donald Trump. And she discussed with him the importance of a peaceful transfer of power – and being a president for all Americans.
As well as winning the electoral college, Trump looks to have won the popular vote – the first Republican candidate to do so since wartime president George W Bush in 2004. But to unite America seems … challenging.
“Many people have told me that God spared my life for a reason,” Trump said on Wednesday night (NZT), in his victory speech. “And that reason was to save our country and to restore America to greatness, and now we are going to fulfil that mission together. We’re going to fulfil that.”
To unite America, difficult. To unite the world? Impossible. And nor has that ever been Trump’s goal.
What New Zealand and the world must now accept is that Trump is not the historical aberration some thought he was, but a force reshaping modern America. He is the mainstream.
To other countries, “restoring America to greatness” might mean restoring its moral authority as a constructive leader in global trade and security. But to Trump, it means economic power for Americans, pure and simple.
The markets and stocks expected to benefit from a Trump win have indeed soared on Thursday, even though tariff hikes could bring challenges in the form of a higher deficit and inflation. The Dow gained 1300 points, or 3.2 percent – the last time it saw a 1000-point jump in a single day was November 2022.
The US dollar and crypto-currencies are up. Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group rose 30 percent, and Tesla, led by Trump loyalist Elon Musk, climbed 15 percent this morning. Semiconductor, AI and oil stocks are up.
Others like renewable energy stocks have plunged. NextEra Energy is down 6 percent and First Solar has dropped 13 percent.
Lenders JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs jumped between 6–10 percent on prospects of improving domestic investment, looser regulations and more deals. Wall Street is anticipating lower taxes, deregulation and according to Reuters, “a US president who is quick to sound off on everything from the stock market to the dollar”.
Jeff Schulze, a market strategist at ClearBridge Investments, says “business animal spirits could be rekindled once again” by Trump’s pro-business approach, leading to more robust capital expenditures and investment.
According to former New Zealand diplomat Stephen Jacobi: “We know what he’s said he’ll do. We don’t know whether he’ll do it! It’s all highly uncertain at this point.”
New Zealand presents a very small trade tariffs target, Jacobi adds. “For once being small, insignificant and smiling a lot might help. Expect a bouncy road.”
The rise in the American dollar offers a sliver of hope to some New Zealand exporters, with the US now this country’s second-biggest trading partner. That said, major primary producers set their prices in US dollars or hedge for currency changes, so any ephemeral currency market gains will be far outweighed by the costs of the 10-20 percent tariffs that Trump promises to impose.
Charles Finny, another former diplomat and trade negotiator, says Trump’s second term will be a challenge for New Zealand diplomacy. The tariffs could breach both US free trade agreements, and World Trade Organization commitments – but that doesn’t seem to worry the incoming administration.  
For New Zealand, the worst-case scenario is that Trump exempts countries such as Australia and Chile from the global tariff on the grounds that they have an FTA, but doesn’t exempt New Zealand. That would give foreign dairy, meat and horticulture competitors an even bigger competitive advantage.Finny says  the first challenge will be for New Zealand to argue the case for exemption from any tariffs. “The arguments are strong. We are a good reliable friend. We allow the US pretty much free access to our market.”
These arguments didn’t work last time around for our steel and aluminium exports, but they are definitely worth running.If and when tariffs are imposed by the US, Finny says there will be reactions and retaliations from more powerful trading blocs like China and Europe. “China could collapse the value of the renminbi to mitigate some of the impacts of the Trump tariffs. Some form of direct retaliation is likely on agricultural exports from the US.”
Perversely, a trade war between our two biggest trading partners might create new opportunities for New Zealand in the China market, and encourage other nations to look for free trade deals or to join up to the CPTPP.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has issued a bland statement congratulating Trump, promising to work in partnership with the US to advance trade and build security and resilience in the Indo-Pacific. But some world leaders have dispensed with the traditional hierarchies of diplomatic language in their responses. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hails “history’s greatest comeback” and boldly anticipates America’s unconditional support for his war on Palestine. It’s expected that Trump will again cut funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, with serious repercussions for the humanitarian relief effort.
Russia and China’s statements were notable for what they didn’t say: both refused to offer congratulations. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed hope for “peaceful coexistence” with the US. “We will continue to approach and handle China-US relations based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation,” says spokesperson Mao Ning.
The Kremlin says Russia will work with the new administration when it ‘settles’ in the White House, firmly defending Russian national interests and focusing on achieving all the goals of its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
During the campaign, Trump repeatedly said he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in a day”. Any further (and time-limited) military support for Ukraine would be conditional on Kyiv entering peace talks with Russia, conceding lost territory, and giving up on its hopes of joining Nato.
So Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s statement was perhaps the most diplomatically-worded of all. “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs,” Zelenskiy wrote. “This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.”
Don’t laugh, but there’s an argument that New Zealand could benefit from migration and direct investment. Perhaps not the libertarian moguls like Peter Thiel, whose bold plans for an exclusive luxury bunker/getaway for wealthy Americans have been stymied by Queenstown’s council and the courts.
But there’s another tier of disaffected Americans, as well as high-value migrants from other countries like China and parts of the Middle-East, who some hope (perhaps optimistically) may now turn their attentions to New Zealand.
“There are going to be quite a few Americans looking for a new home now that Trump has been re-elected,” says Finny. “Many of these will be high net worth households. If the Immigration Service and NZTE are strategic about this, many of these people may one day be calling Aotearoa home.” 
It also seems fair to say that an emphatic win for Trump and JD Vance will legitimise and empower those conservative voices in the Western world’s so-called culture wars – those who wish to turn back the tide on women’s health, trans rights, immigration, recognition of indigenous cultures, and a perceived ‘cancel culture’.
To that extent, there will be uncertainty in America and around the world, for more vulnerable communities like Asian and Arab migrants, trans people, and those women most desperately in need of abortions. Policies that once seemed fringe (examples in New Zealand are banning trans girls and women from public toilets and grassroots sports and prohibiting the use of puberty blockers) will now be perceived as more mainstream.
To that extent, the election of Trump will be welcomed more by those favoured with greater economic strength and personal autonomy, than those in more vulnerable communities – those who don’t have foreign currency accounts and shares in Tesla.